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USD/JPY: More downward momentum?

By Xinyang July 31, 2016
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Fundamental brief overview

The USD/JPY ended the week at 102.01 and looks headed to the 100 range as the BOJ did very little at its meeting on Friday which surprises the markets. The yen notched its fourth rise in six days as news that Tokyo had unveiled a surprisingly large 28 trillion-yen ($265 billion) stimulus package left traders wondering how aggressive the Bank of Japan would be when it meets on Friday.

Technical Insights

Currency performances:

1 year performance: -17.69%

6 months performance: -15.69%

3 months performance: -4.07%

1 month performance: -1.25%

Short Term: USD/JPY (30min chart)

Trend Analysis: Bearish (50 SMA below 200 SMA).

Levels Analysis: Critical support zone at 99.97 - 100.18 and resistance 103.86

Price action: Rounding top broken neckline at 103.86

Summary: Bearish indicators and price action, I am expecting the price to continue its downtrend to the critical support zone at 99.97 - 100.18.

Screen Shot 2016-08-01 at 1.10.42 AM

Long Term: USD/JPY (Daily Chart)

Trend Analysis: Bearish (50 SMA below 200 SMA)

Levels Analysis: Critical support zone at 99.02 - 100.81 and resistance at 107.42

Price action: Trading in a bearish channel

Summary: Bearish indicators and price action, I am expecting the price to continue its downtrend to the critical support zone at 99.02 - 100.81.

Screen Shot 2016-08-01 at 1.34.08 AM

Secular Trend (Year on Year%): USD/JPY (Monthly Chart)

Completed Cycles: 5

Number of troughs: 5

Number of peaks: 6

Summary: Diminishing growth, awaiting for the next trough to form

Screen Shot 2016-08-01 at 12.34.38 AM

Currency's Sentiment (Base on CMC markets clients)

Number of buyers: 78%

Number of sellers: 22%

Position value of buyers: 92%

Position value of sellers: 8%

Overall sentiment: Bullish

Screen Shot 2016-08-01 at 12.41.35 AM

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By Xinyang July 31, 2016
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