Top Events For Nov 28 – Dec 2

The release of worldwide manufacturing PMI results will provide data watchers with the first available information on global economic trends in November. Meanwhile the Fed will be monitoring non-farm payroll numbers in the US and ECB policymakers await inflation and unemployment figures.

US non-farm payrolls and the PMI

The US also sees the release of consumer confidence figures, updated third quarter GDP results, plus final manufacturing PMI and ISM numbers for November. A flash estimate of the PMI signalled accelerating growth in the goods-producing sector, with output rising at the fastest pace since March 2015.

ECB rate setters in Frankfurt will meanwhile keep a close eye on latest inflation numbers in the euro area, after consumer prices rose to the greatest extent in two years in October. Meanwhile, latest flash PMI results signalled that inflationary pressures are at their highest for over five years. Official CPI data for November are released by Eurostat on Wednesday. However, although rising, at 0.5% inflation remained well below the bank’s target of below but close to 2%. ECB boss Mario Draghi also told the European Parliament that the bank remains “committed to preserving the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2 percent over the medium term.” It is therefore likely that the ECB will announce an extension of its bond-buying programme beyond March 2017 at its next meeting.

Eurozone inflation

Other important releases in the currency union include economic sentiment data, unemployment figures and final manufacturing PMI results. Flash PMI results pointed to accelerated growth in November, with GDP growth likely to reach 0.4% over the fourth quarter.

There will also be a big focus on Brazil, a country that has been stuck in economic recession since 2014. The Banco Central do Brasil will announce its latest monetary policy stance, while IBGE releases third quarter GDP results. Although the introduction of the new government helped boost business and consumer confidence, both the PMI and the central bank’s Index of Economic Activity suggest that the economy remained in recession in the third quarter, with the data pointing to a 0.8% decline in GDP. However, IHS Markit currently anticipates a stabilisation of the Brazilian economy in the first half of 2017.

Brazil economic growth and the PMI

Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates for the first time in four years amid weakening inflation and a shrinking economy. At 14%, Brazil’s policy rate is still one of the highest in the world, so it is likely that the bank will continue to cut rates in coming months. However, a further cut as soon as November seems unlikely as policymakers had signalled that the easing cycle will be “moderate and gradual”.

Worldwide manufacturing PMI results are released on Thursday and will provide important information on global industry trends in November. October saw goods-producers spring back into life, with the PMI reaching a two-year high. Especially encouraging were improvements in China, the eurozone and the US. However a number of countries remained in contraction, notably in Asia and it will be interesting to see if conditions have improved since October.

OPEC Ministerial Meeting

The regular OPEC Ministerial meeting will be held in Vienna on Wednesday November 30th.

The OPEC meeting will be extremely important for underlying sentiment surrounding oil markets as OPEC looks to finalise a deal to curb production.

The original deal to curb production was reached in Algeria in September, but details of individual quotas were not agreed at that point with an interim committee set up to agree quotas by late November.

According to sources, the technical committee has agreed its stance with a potential six-month deal to cut quotas by 4-4.5% except for Libya and Nigeria. There are also reports that Iranian and Iraqi quotas have been left until the ministerial meeting.