Lacker Raises Hopes for a Rates Hike

Comments made by Richmond Fed President Lacker held implications that the Fed Funds rate should be much higher than it is now. He however said that he was still weighing his options concerning the issue of a September rate increase, further adding that the US economy will need much higher interest rates, unless there is a considerable amount of slowing in job growth.

Lacker, who is not a voting member of the U.S. central bank's rate-setting committee this year, said he still favours raising rates sooner than later and that the Fed's last policy meeting in July would have been a "good time" to tighten policy.

Lacker also talked about the principles behind the benchmarks of interest rates and the guides to the appropriate level of interest rates like the Taylor rule.

Speaking to a group of economists in Richmond, Lacker argued that a range of economic analysis suggests the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate - the federal funds rate - is currently too low. “It appears that the funds rate should be significantly higher than it is now," he said in the speech.

On the issue of US economic developments the recommended level of Fed funds for the second quarter was 3.3% and using the Laubach-Williams estimate of the natural real rate, the estimate for the Fed Funds rate would be around 1.5%.

While Lacker does not yet have a vote on the policy until 2018, and does not participate in Fed discussions on interest rates. The Fed has appeared sharply divided between policy-makers who clamour for rate increases soon and those who urge more caution. Those favouring caution appeared to get a boost on Friday when a report showed 150,000 U.S. jobs were created last month, fewer than expected.

But Lacker said the weaker pace of hiring still left the job market on a strengthening path and the case for higher rates would only grow stronger unless job growth slowed "significantly in the months ahead." He suggested there were increased risks in waiting to raise rates. "The way the data is playing out I think the longer we wait there is a material increase in risks that we run," Lacker told reporters after his speech.

The Fed hiked rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade and has signalled since March that two rate increases could be in order this year. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week she thought the case for a rate hike had strengthened, but many investors have doubts the central bank will raise rates at all this year. Lacker said he was concerned the economy could heat up enough for inflation to go above the Fed's 2 percent target, hurting the central bank's credibility. He said warning about prices "might not be fashionable" given that inflation has been below target in recent years.

But there is a risk the Fed will have to jack up rates quickly, triggering a recession, he said in his speech. “It would be hard to calibrated policy settings carefully enough to avoid the precipitation of a contraction in real activity," Lacker said.