The German ZEW survey is due on Tuesday 16th January and is so far the most awaited news of the first two days of this week’s trading. There is a lot of optimism in play as recent stats also show
Fundamental and Technical Outlook: EUR/CAD
Fundamental Outlook: EUR/CAD
The main news from over the weekend was the announcement that Non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by 558,000 barrels per day starting from January. Consequently, WTI surged higher, opening above $53 per barrel, supporting CAD and commodity-linked currencies as a whole.
In today’s session, we expect the strongest currency to be CAD given strength in oil prices following Non-OPEC producers agreeing to cut output. The weakest currency is still expected to be EUR as last week's ECB announcements should continue to see EUR pressured.
Source: Jarratt Davis
Technical Outlook: EUR/CAD
Overview of Currencies
USD: The Federal Reserve are most likely to hike rates at their next meeting as Fed rhetoric over recent months has continued to suggest a December hike is highly likely which continues to support September's FOMC Economic Projections where 14 of 17 Fed members expected a hike in 2016. This gives the USD currency an overall bullish tone heading into the Fed's December meeting.
EUR: The ECB are most likely to leave their policy unchanged at their next meeting given they have only just announced an extension of QE by an additional 9 months till December 2017 (although this period will be at a reduced size of €60 billion per month). If the ECB did decide to change policy it would likely be an increase of its QE programme back to €80 billion per month as stated as a possibility in December's press conference. With the ECB once again extending its QE programme and clearly stating that they wish to have a sustained presence in the market, we hold a fundamentally bearish bias for EUR.
GBP: The BoE are most likely to leave policy unchanged over the next three months as upward revisions to growth and inflation expectations amongst surprisingly upbeat UK data has reduced the need for further easing. Although the UK economy has continued to show resilience following the UK voting to leave the EU, there is still a high degree of uncertainty, especially surrounding exit negotiations which will begin once Article 50 is triggered. Therefore although the BoE are likely on hold for the time being, further easing is still a distinct possibility. For this reason, we continue to view GBP as fundamentally bearish.
AUD: The RBA are most likely to leave policy unchanged at their next meeting, however, until we start to see any notable pickup in inflation, further easing remains a distinct possibility. Continued AUD appreciation is also noted as a concern for the RBA and likely provides an additional argument for further cuts. Nevertheless, market consensus is currently for the RBA to remain on hold at least for the rest of 2016. For these reasons we currently hold a neutral bias for AUD.
NZD: The RBNZ are most likely to leave monetary policy unchanged over the next three months as after cutting rates to a new record low of 1.75%, RBNZ Governor Wheeler stated that "at this stage we think we won't need another cut". RBNZ Deputy Governor McDermott, however, has continued to stress that "they can cut rates more if needed" and "risks on rates are still to the downside". Given these latest comments we expect the RBNZ to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, however, continue to maintain a slight downside bias.
CAD: The BoC are most likely to leave monetary policy unchanged at their next meeting as Canadian inflation is within the BoC’s target range of 1-3% with the economy also supported by accommodative fiscal measures. If the BoC did conduct a policy change within the next three months, it would likely be a rate cut based on concerns over Canada’s competitiveness since CAD’s appreciation throughout the year and increasing concerns over inflation. Although this gives CAD a slightly bearish fundamental bias, with most central banks currently in easing cycles CAD has a comparatively neutral bias.
JPY: The BoJ will most likely need to ease policy further in the future as inflation in Japan continues to decline with little indication that it will eventually reach the BoJ's target of 2%. At their November meeting, however, the BoJ expressed concerns over the impact of low interest rates on financial system stability and therefore the BoJ may be more reluctant to increase easing until absolutely necessary. For this reason, we continue to hold our overall bearish fundamental bias, however, acknowledge that further declines in inflation may be necessary before further easing can be expected.
CHF: The SNB are most likely to leave their policy unchanged at their next meeting, as interest rates in Switzerland already remain at a record low of -0.75%. If the SNB were to change policy in the next three months, it would likely be a rate cut as inflation continues to remain far below the SNB’s target. This gives CHF an overall bearish tone.
Source: Jarratt Davis