AUD/USD in consolidation

AUD/USD is currently trading in a consolidation phase, with no distinctive trend after private sector credit in Australia rose 0.2 percent MoM in June from 0.4 percent in May with market estimations at 0.5 percent rise. It was the weakest gain since November 2012, as business and personal credit fell (-0.2 and -0.1, respectively) while housing credit was steady (+0.5). YoY, private sector credit expanded by 6.2 percent, easing from a 6.5 percent increase in May.

Technical Insights

Short Term Chart: AUD/USD (15min)

Trend Analysis: Bullish (50 SMA above 200 SMA).

Levels Analysis: Critical support at 0.74940 and resistance zone at 0.75490 - 0.75650

Takeaway: Moving averages are having multiple crossovers recently, which signify that no prominent trend is currently present. However, looking at the price action per se, a rounding bottom formation may indicate signs of imminent bullish momentum. If the price is to break above the critical resistance zone of 0.75490 - 0.75650, I am expecting further up sight in this currency pair in the short term.



Long Term Chart: AUD/USD (Daily)

Trend Analysis: Bullish (50 SMA above 200 SMA).

Levels Analysis: Critical support zone at 0.71350 and resistance at 0.78290

Takeaway: On March 2016, a Golden Cross occurred after a one year plus downtrend indicated by the bearish moving averages that started around the period of October 2014. In addition, we can also see that a double bottom formation has broken its neckline at 0.73880, and continue trending upwards. Looking at even a larger picture, the price is currently trading in a huge Symmetrical Triangle formation and I am expecting the price to ascend further if the critical resistance at 0.78290 is broken. All in all, via technical analysis alone, I am quite bullish in AUD/USD as indicators and price action is pointing to the up side.